So Inverclyde SNP have finally announced their candidates for May's Council elections.
It seems a bit strange that a party that has been sweeping all before it across Scotland is only standing 9 candidates, although somewhat bizarrely one of the candidates - Chris McEleny - told me only last week through Twitter that he would not be standing in May having previously told me he was. Surely he has not changed his mind again?
It is an open secret that the SNP have struggled to field 9 candidates, never mind the 11 they would need to win outright control of the Council. Sitting Councillor Keith Brooks has had his arm well and truly twisted to convince him to stand again.
Ward 1 Councillor Jim MacLeod will be a relieved man today. Originally newcomer Math Campbell-Sturgess was due to stand in Ward 1 along with him, which would have raised a considerable doubt over Jim's re-election as he would have been below Campbell-Sturgess on the ballot paper. Jim is now a certainty to be re-elected.
The decision to stand two candidates in Ward 5 - assuming Chris McEleny is actually standing - looks a bit risky since this is the only Ward where the SNP currently do not have a Councillor. I think they will struggle to get one candidate elected never mind two. I don't fancy Ralph Roberts' chances as he will be second on the ballot paper.
Current SNP Group Leader Innes Nelson might also struggle in Ward 6 as he will be second on the ballot paper behind John Crowther, although this is probably the Ward where they have the best chance of getting two candidates elected.
My guess would be that the SNP will end up with anywhere between 5 and 7 Councillors, meaning they will need to seek a coalition with another party or parties if they are to take control of the Council.
Since they have ruled out working with the Tories - who will certainly win one seat, possibly two - that leaves the Lib Dems and any independents.
The Lib Dems will do very well to hold their current 3 seats. If against the odds they do, then the SNP will not win 7 seats. This would leave an SNP - Lib Dem coalition short of the numbers they need to form a coalition Administration.
It is almost certain that Ronnie Ahlfeld will be re-elected in Ward 5. I cannot see Ronnie supporting an SNP-Lib Dem coalition.
So where would that leave the SNP?
Seeking a grand coalition with Labour or facing another 5 years in opposition?
It promises to be an interesting election.
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Interesting how you assume Labour will win any seats at all given your woeful performance in office. Could well be the SNP take 8 or 9 seats, and a host of independent councillors take office leaving you guys just able to fill a taxi.
ReplyDeleteI do wonder where you get all these outlandish ideas about Chris McEleny not standing, or myself in Ward 1. I think someone's been telling you porkies Stephen.
You are right about one thing though. It shall be an interesting election.
I get my information from within the SNP, Math.
ReplyDeleteAre you denying that you were originally selected for Ward 1 along with Jim MacLeod? That's what I was told by several members of the SNP. Jim MacLeod's face was like fizz for weeks because of it as he would have been behind you on the ballot paper.
Chris McEleny tweeted that he was not standing that's how I got that 'outlandish' idea. Have you read his tweet?
If our performance has been so woeful why are you not putting up enough candidates to win a majority on the Council? Also why did the then Leader of the Council win the Inverclyde by-election by a comfortable margin last June?
And I had to laugh at your party trying to claim credit for a lot of the things we have introduced in the last five years. You really have no shame.
Wonder where all these independents you are talking about are going to come from?
Don't forget at the last election that the only independent elected was Ronnie Ahlfeld and he was not part of the independent grouping.
I am certainly not taking anything for granted - that's why we are already out pounding the streets of Inverclyde.
I am quietly confident however that we will at least be the biggest party.
You and your colleagues might want to think about that and what role you would like to play in the next Council. You should learn from the mistakes of the current SNP Group who have spent the last five years in the pocket of the Lib Dems rather than trying to develop a constructive relationship with the Administration.
Math was put in to ward 1 and moved to 3. Telling lies on a public forum is no surprise given his disgraceful abuse of David Cairns MP on Twitter.
ReplyDeleteCare to comment Math?
DeleteYou are very wrong. Councillor Keith Brooks was not pushed. Don't believe everything he tells his Labour friends. He made the decision on his own when a candidate pulled out. The party had an approved person lined up to step in and he worked to get rid of him.
ReplyDeleteI would imagine that you would be pleased that you will continue be kept informed of internal SNP matters for the next five years. His trying to be all things to all men is set to continue.
Sounds like the new SNP Group could be even worse than the current lot, and that is saying something.
DeleteWho in their right mind would want to work with them?
Math, go away and get some life experience and come back in a few years.
ReplyDeleteDressing up as witches and wizards doesn't count!
Given that he will be the first SNP candidate on the ballot paper he is almost certain to be elected: heaven help us!
DeleteIs this the same Math who had un the Sun newspaper?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/102320/The-breast-place-for-ads.html
Suitable council material. Hmmmmmmm Rumour of young Math or is it Mathew standing for the snp party has been rife for some time. I am horrified the rumours are true.r MaCmillan MSP's close friendship with this young man is no good thing.
I cant see what the big deal is if someone moves from one area to another to stand for the council. Remember the scrammy Inverclyde Labour had just a few weeks before the council election in 2007? You moved ward, Mr McAllum moved ward. Mr Campbell has a right to do precisely what you have done in the past.
ReplyDeleteIt is no big deal but he said that he wasn't selected for Ward 1, while others have said categorically that he was.
ReplyDeleteWho is telling the truth?
As a voter I find a lot of the comments here strange and obviously must come from within the SNP camp and not Labour supporters stirring it up. Forget about parties for a second and look at the candidates I'm afaid that even the most loyal SNP supporter would have to admit that their list does not install confidence.
ReplyDeleteI am giving the cybernats the chance to vent their frustrations free of charge now that the Telegraph website is a subscription service.
Delete"Wonder where all these independents you are talking about are going to come from"
ReplyDeletecloser than you think Seephen closer than you think
Bring them on.
DeleteThe more candidates to split the anti-Labour vote the better.
If you are so sure Ralph Roberts and Innes Nelson wont be elected due to their position on the ballot paper why are you fielding 11 candidates,by your own assessment all is a foregone conclusion so the SNP are dong the right thing going with nine,not much of a leader are you for your own team. Chris and John are fine candidates.
ReplyDeleteWe are fielding 11 candidates because you need to win 11 seats to win outright control of the Council.
ReplyDeleteAt the last election we won 9 seats and narrowly missed out on another 1. I am quietly confident we can win 10 seats this time and on a very good day we could make it 11.
The SNP are absolutely doing the right thing by standing two candidates in Gourock - where they currently do not have a councillor. The other parties are delighted.
Do you seriously think they will win two out of three seats in Gourock?
There is a chance that they could win two out of the three seats in Ward 6, assuming Ciano's vote collapses and goes to them. But if they win only one then Innes might be in trouble as he is second on the ballot paper behind John Crowther and the clear evidence from the last election is that the candidate first on the ballot paper has a clear advantage.
I was told by an SNP stalwart that Math was asked to move to ward 3 by Stuart McMillan MSP when the expected candidate pulled out and there was a chance that the sitting councillor was going to consider filling the gap. Stuart is behind this and behind forcing John Crowther to move to ward 6 to scupper Innes. He's now frantically looking for a candidate to jump the ballot paper in ward 1 to get rid of Jim. He is pleased that Chris is ahead of Ralph in Gourock as he sees Ralph as the next candidate for the SNP for the Scottish election. That way he keeps him out and gets rid of sitting councillors who dont rate him and see him as a poor performing MP.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting analysis.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to the cybernats' responses.
I'VE GOT TO AGREE WITH ONE THING FROM THIS THREAD. THE SNP MSP STUART MCMILLAN IS A NASTY PIECE OF WORK. MR WILLIAM WILSON HIS PERSONAL ASSISTANT IS ALSO A NASTY LITTLE MAN. MY ENQUIRIES ABOUT HIM ARE REVEALING LOTS IF INTERESTING TITBITS TOO.
ReplyDelete